Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.249861 2.380542 2.522175 2.688527 2.880527 3.097740 3.365962
2025-04-27 2.141635 2.316186 2.515102 2.762940 3.070310 3.449499 3.972066
2025-05-04 2.036341 2.233047 2.464619 2.764994 3.157426 3.675428 4.460299
2025-05-11 1.956496 2.168400 2.424268 2.767128 3.235245 3.891947 4.984468
2025-05-18 1.863290 2.078736 2.343050 2.704724 3.213258 3.957752 5.287228
2025-05-25 1.804665 2.027036 2.304396 2.692465 3.255946 4.122080 5.809620
2025-06-01 1.751514 1.978408 2.265345 2.674500 3.285583 4.267749 6.354420
2025-06-08 1.702825 1.932488 2.226339 2.652243 3.304348 4.396246 6.924715
2025-06-15 1.676771 1.914052 2.222110 2.677959 3.398938 4.675586 8.042782
2025-06-22 1.613521 1.844163 2.144547 2.591061 3.302404 4.578304 8.054165
2025-06-29 1.583405 1.816745 2.123616 2.586275 3.340403 4.750701 9.049270
2025-07-06 1.540606 1.770867 2.075094 2.536890 3.298052 4.751617 9.461469
2025-07-13 1.524758 1.761611 2.078640 2.569249 3.404501 5.103543 11.892905
2025-07-20 1.520926 1.768140 2.104367 2.637455 3.584017 5.686607 18.085038
2025-07-27 1.497684 1.747093 2.089329 2.639431 3.640457 5.989317 25.663893
2025-08-03 1.476009 1.727330 2.075076 2.641378 3.696783 6.316326 45.296884
2025-08-10 1.439397 1.685703 2.027155 2.584866 3.630022 6.259209 54.582429
2025-08-17 1.417217 1.663565 2.007147 2.573747 3.654838 6.499354 348.819486
2025-08-24 1.394878 1.640528 1.984892 2.557443 3.667024 6.706958 NaN
2025-08-31 1.372671 1.617061 1.961143 2.537226 3.668769 6.883171 NaN
2025-09-07 1.362930 1.610824 1.962858 2.560583 3.767476 7.475337 NaN
2025-09-14 1.327674 1.567551 1.907280 2.481559 3.630962 7.072943 NaN
2025-09-21 1.312600 1.552729 1.894549 2.477199 3.662872 7.391204 NaN